You’ve likely heard of this type of forecasting. In a nutshell, it involves getting dozens of people to answer a series of questions about their work or personal life, and then looking for patterns. You can’t really do this by yourself, though. You need to use a computer, so that you can collect the data and predict the future.
It works like this: you are asked a simple question (the most basic question, like, “What did you eat last night?”) followed by multiple options for each answer. The question is repeated until the desired result has been achieved.
People who have never taken an analytical IQ test can be a bit dubious about applying this approach, but it seems to be very effective. The question is, “How many people ate ice cream last night?” is repeated until the desired result has been achieved. The data you collect is then used to make a prediction about what the next question will be.
The delphi approach has been around for a while now, but it has become more popular in recent months for its potential to reduce the number of questions that need to be answered. The theory is that this approach allows you to collect data that is easier to answer using a single question. For example, the question “How many people in the room had ice cream last night?” is easier to answer with the data we have now, rather than asking the same question for each person.
By not asking the entire population in the room if they had ice cream last night, we can reduce the number of questionnaires we need to answer by a factor of at least six times. We can also eliminate at least one question altogether. Of course, we’re still left with a lot of questions to answer, and that will be a big part of the challenge for our research team.
The final step in the process is the use of a consensus forecast methodology. In a consensus forecast, each participant is asked to answer a question about their own past experience with a certain event. This information is then combined to provide a forecast for the group. The consensus forecast is then used to estimate the probability that the event will occur in the future. The consensus forecast also provides a basis for judging the validity of that forecast.
In the case of our study, we used a consensus forecast to make the prediction that the Visionaries would be on the island at 2:00am. In the end, we were quite surprised when we found that, contrary to what our consensus forecast said, the Visionaries actually showed up at 4:00am.
Of course, the consensus forecast is just one of the steps that we took to determine the probability of the Visionaries being on the island at that time. The other three steps were to check the weather, check the amount of time that it would take to do the assault, and check the amount of damage they would do to us.
On the island, they would have a chance of being on the island at that time, but they would have a very poor chance of being on the island at that time. On the island they would have a very poor chance of being on the island at that time.